How many times have you read “C++ is dead” or “Is the C programming language still used?” when, in reality, both languages are still very popular?
And how many times have we read, “WOW, this new programming language is the best,” only for nothing much to happen after a few years and for the language to decline in popularity? However, there are some exceptions — the most interesting one being Python, which rose from a not widely used scripting language to a very popular programming language.
What could explain the longevity of C, the rebirth of C++, and the rise of Python?
Let’s look at the crossing-the-chasm theory from Wikipedia, which can help us answer the question above.
In Crossing the Chasm, Moore begins with the diffusion of innovations theory from Everett Rogers, and argues there is a chasm between the early adopters of the product(the technology enthusiasts and visionaries) and the early majority (the pragmatists). Moore believes visionaries and pragmatists have very different expectations, and he attempts to explore those differences and suggest techniques to successfully cross the "chasm".Crossing the Chasm is closely related to the technology adoption lifecycle where five main segments are recognized: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. According to Moore, the marketer should focus on one group of customers at a time, using each group as a base for marketing to the next group. The most difficult step is making the transition between visionaries (early adopters) and pragmatists (early majority). This is the chasm that he refers to. If a successful firm can create a bandwagon effect in which enough momentum builds, then the product becomes a de facto standard.
Moore demonstrates that in fact, there are cracks in the curve, between each phase of the cycle, representing a disassociation between any two groups; that is, "the difficulty any group will have in accepting a new product if it is presented the same way as it was to the group to its immediate left." The largest crack, so large it can be considered a chasm, is between the Early Adopters and the Early Majority. Many (most) high tech ventures fail trying to make it across this chasm.
The Early Adopters are the rare breed of visionaries "who have the insight to match an emerging technology to a strategic opportunity,… driven by a 'dream'. The core dream is a business goal, not a technology goal, and it involves taking a quantum leap forward in how business is conducted in their industry or by their customers… Visionaries drive the high-tech industry because they see the potential for an 'orderof-magnitude' return on investment and willingly take high risks to pursue that goal.
The Early Majority are pragmatists… "they care about the company they are buying from, the quality of the product they are buying, the infrastructure of supporting products and system interfaces, and the reliability of the service they are going to get… Pragmatists tend to be 'vertically' oriented, meaning that they communicate more with others like themselves within their own industry than do technology 2 enthusiasts and early adopters… It is very difficult to break into a new industry selling to pragmatists.
Although crossing the chasm is more closely associated with selling a product, the concept can also be applied to programming language adoption. For each new language, innovators and early adopters are its first advocates, but many programming languages fail to win over the early majority and therefore can’t cross the chasm.
C and C++ crossed the chasm decades ago and remain very popular. It’s also very difficult to convince the early and late majorities to migrate from C/C++ to another language. I’ve often read that D, Go, or Rust will kill C++, but that hasn’t happened: these newer languages still face significant challenges in crossing the chasm.
Python is a great example of a language that crossed the chasm: it has grown from a relatively niche scripting language into a highly popular and versatile programming language. Why did this happen with Python?
Let’s go back to this assertion from Moore:
According to Moore, the marketer should focus on one group of customers at a time, using each group as a base for marketing to the next group. The most difficult step is making the transition between visionaries (early adopters) and pragmatists (early majority).
The innovators and early adopters did an excellent job of advocating for and supporting the language. From the beginning, there was plenty of documentation, along with guides, tutorials, and other resources. In addition, the developer community is incredibly active, which means that when someone needs help or support, they can usually get it quickly. Furthermore, Google adopted Python extensively back in 2006 and has since used it for many platforms and applications. Having strong corporate backing can also play a major role in making a language popular.
Special thanks to Python’s early adopters, who contributed greatly to its success — and good luck to the early adopters of other emerging programming languages.